WELCOME TO THE "AREA FORECAST SEVERE WEATHER "DISCUSSION". HERE IS WHERE WE DISCUSS THE UPCOMING POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. NOW HOW WE FORECAST THIS IS BY LOOKING AT FORECAST MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO SEE HOW THE ATMOSPHERE IS GOING TO PLAY OUT. THIS DISCUSSION IS MEANT TO GIVE REASONING TO THE FORECAST ON THE MAIN PAGE AND IS SCIENTIFIC SO ANY WORDS NOT UNDERSTOOD, I APOLOGIZE. NOW WE HAVE A "MARGINAL" "SLIGHT" "MODERATE" AND "HIGH" RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THAT WE HAVE ON THE HOMEPAGE AND HERE, IS WHERE WE DISCUSS THAT POTENTIAL IN DETAIL.

AREA FORECAST SEVERE WEATHER "DISCUSSION"

WE KNOW THAT IT IS GOING TO STORM TOMORROW NIGHT. GIVEN ALL THE SIGNALS YOU WOULD THINK IT IS WITHOUT A DOUBT GOING TO STORM. WELL YOU COULD SAY IM SORTA IN THAT CAMP, AS I BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE TO STORM, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 131. A SURGE OF H8 AIR THAT IS VERY WARM ACCOMPANIED WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 16C...AND A 40-50 KT WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET CROSSING THE WARM FRONT JUST TO OUR WEST...WILL GIVE US SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT AND THE HIGH PWAT VALUES AROUND TWO INCHES WILL SUPPORT A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN I BELIEVE IS STILL GOING TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 131 AS THE LLJ IS AIMED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CONTOUR/THICKNESS LINES ARE GENERALLY AIMED SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THIS WOULD CURVE ANY TYPE OF ORGANIZED COMPLEX TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AND AFFECT OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THE PRIMARILY TIME OF CONCERN IS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. I ALSO FINALLY GOT OFF THE FENCE AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. I KNOW THE WEATHER SERVICE IS NOT GOING TO ISSUE ANY KIND OF AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THIS TYPE OF EVENT, I BELIEVE THAT THE RAIN THAT COULD BE PUT DOWN BY THE THUNDERSTORMS, THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN THE ENTIRE AREA. ALL IN ALL, FOR THIS REASON, ATTM, I HAVE GIVEN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER A MODERATE OR 45 PERCENT CHANCE, GIVEN THAT IT IS THE WESTERN AREAS BEING AFFECTED. NOW TOMORROW BRINGS ANOTHER STORY, AND I MAY NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THE RISK AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.